Our Economic Recovery Meeting (and what we really talked about)

A small but engaged group turned out for the Seacoast for Change Economic Recovery Meeting at The Friendly Toast on Wednesday, February 11. The Portsmouth event was one of approximately 3,500 gatherings organized by grassroots volunteers in over 1,500 cities in response to a call by Organizing for America (aka "OFA 2.0") to gather friends and neighbors to share fact sheets and talking points on the Obama administration's stimulus plan. The main focus of the meetings, according to the event hosting guide, "is to share your story, the story of your neighbors, and collect the stories of your community during this economic crisis" -- and report it all to OFA 2.0 through the organization's web site.

As OFA 2.0's first official attempt to enlist the pro-Obama masses to support the President's agenda, the economic recovery meetings have received considerable press attention (WMUR sent a news crew to cover our Seacoast get-together). Not all media reports have been positive (there's a good summary here on the FiveThirtyEight blog), with several news stories and commentaries painting OFA 2.0 as dead on arrival. Even the most optimistic coverage acknowledges that convincing a diverse and independent-minded grassroots base to amplify President Obama's message with a single voice is going to be tricky, and the whole thing could fall flat if the budding army of citizen activists grows disenchanted with OFA 2.0's not-so-inclusive approach to social movement organizing. But it's also clear from reports that Seacoast for Change is one of dozens, and perhaps hundreds, of well-organized, ready-to-go grassroots groups planning action in communities around the country.

On the topic of media reporting, it was pretty obvious that the WMUR reporter who covered Wednesday night's event had been assigned a story on public reaction to debates about the stimulus plan in relation to NH infrastructure spending -- which is an important and timely issue, but I can assure you that those of us who gathered at the Toast last night did not spend the entire evening to talking about the sad state of the Memorial Bridge, and what to do about it. We did, however, talk about the need to increase education spending and create new jobs by investing in green industry, solving the health care crisis, filling the gaps in publicly-funded safety net through community service, and the causes and consequences of extreme income inequality in the United States. (Due to a technical glitch, we did not view a short video of DNC Chair Tim Kaine responding to questions about the stimulus package and announcing the soon-to-be launched recovery.gov web site, which you can watch here.)

With the stimulus bill on track for a final vote before the end of the day, it's worth noting that although far from perfect, the recovery package is -- as Bernie Horn writes for the Campaign for America's Future blog -- "the biggest and boldest progressive legislation of the past 40 years" and a Darn Good First Step.

Momentum Watch: '08 Gallup Polls Shade NH Solid Blue

An analysis of Gallup Poll Daily tracking data from 2008 finds that 49 percent of New Hampshire voters affiliate with the Democratic Party, compared to 36 percent who identify with or lean toward the GOP. That 13 percentage point gap places New Hampshire among 29 other states ranked "solidly" Democratic by the Gallup organization, with six states "leaning" blue. Only four states -- Alaska, Idaho, Wyoming, and Utah -- were ranked solidly Republican in 2008, with one state (Nebraska) leaning. The remaining states -- all of which were carried by McCain in the November election -- are considered "competitive," with the partisan advantage to either party under 5 points.

While Gallup reports that results from the state-level analysis are consistent with national polls finding that a majority of Americans affiliated with any political party leaned toward or identified as Dems in 2008, election results suggest a robust population of Democratic sympathizers is not enough to guarantee that a state will actually vote for Democratic candidates. As the report explains,

Given that most states had a Democratic advantage in party affiliation last year, to some degree it can be argued that Barack Obama could have won many more electoral votes than he did. In fact, Obama won 28 states (plus the District of Columbia) to John McCain's 22 in the 2008 election.

There are several reasons for possible disparities between the party affiliation data and the voting outcomes in a given state. First, turnout has typically been an equalizer in U.S. electoral politics because Democrats almost always have an advantage in identification, but Republicans have been competitive in national and state elections over the last three decades because Republicans are usually more likely than Democrats to vote. Second, one's partisan leaning is not a perfect predictor of voting in a presidential election, in which candidate-specific characteristics can influence a voter's choice. (Emphasis added.)

More momentum: Americans (heart) Democrats!
A report published today by Pew Research finds that the Democratic Party has a "vast favorability advantage" over the GOP among the American public. Overall, 62 percent of U.S. adults who took the January 11-15 survey rated the Democratic Party favorably, compared to 40 percent who held a favorable opinion of the Republican camp. Almost every demographic group reported feeling more favorable toward Dems -- including white evangelic Christians, who were more like to favor the Democratic Party by 2 percentage points. The latest numbers reflect the highest overall favorability rating of either party in 20 years.

Further parsing of the survey data shows that Americans believe historically excluded & ignored constituencies -- including African Americans, the poor, children, women, gays & lesbians, environmentalists, union leaders, and ordinary folks ("people like yourself") -- will gain significantly more political clout under President Obama's administration compared to the last eight years. The biggest losers in the influence department, Americans predict, will be business corporations, conservative Christians, Washington lobbyists, and "the wealthy." (How do you spell, "it's about damn time"?)

Another high note from the Pew study: in January 2009, 70 percent of Americans surveyed approved of the way President Obama explains his policies and plans. Opinion was sharply divided along partisan lines, however, with Democrats (92 percent) and Independent voters (67 percent) giving Obama a higher approval rating than Republicans (44 percent). Over 80 percent of Americans have heard "a lot" (33 percent) or "a little" about President Obama's economic recovery plan, and a majority -- 57 percent -- think the proposal is a good idea.

There's plenty more enlightening fodder for Democratic data geeks in the full report.

In the News: Local Coverage of MLK Jr. Day of Service, Inauguration Day

In case you missed it, there's been good coverage in local news outlets about next week's MLK, Jr. Day of Service and Inauguration Day events in the Seacoast area:

MLK Day of Service: Rally, march and fair to be held Jan. 19 in Portsmouth, by Rachel M. Colins, Portsmouth Herald, 01.15.09.

Seacoast Ready for Obama Inauguration, by Rachel Forrest, Portsmouth Herald, 01.15.09. (This article does not include events organized by Seacoast for Change, but the paper did print notices about our food drive and Inauguration Day viz in the community calendar.)

The Wire NH Inauguration Day write-up includes info about events in Concord & Manchester.

Finally, Seacoast for Change was featured this week in a story by staff reporter Adam Krauss in Foster's Daily Democrat: Portsmouth activist staying home for inauguration, 01.14.09. Alas, Mr. Krauss misreported some of the event details (our visibility is from 4-5 on Tuesday), but it's nice to see our grassroots network getting some press.

Good Stuff: New Website Covers NH Legislation

Any local politico or policy wonk can tell you that the nh.gov website provides an online database of current legislation and a calendar of public hearings (as well as the full text of all NH statutes). But despite multiple search paths and directories, it's not always easy to find exactly what you're looking for or track the progress of specific bills. A new website, Front Door Politics NH, offers an appealing alternative for readers seeking straight-forward reporting on legislative developments, as well as (and this what I really like) user-friendly information about the legislative process and how concerned citizens can get involved. For example, the site includes a glossary of legislative terms and a jargon-free primer on how a bill becomes law in NH, as well as an easy-to-scan spreadsheet of the 2009 LSR (the list of roughly 1,000 bills submitted for consideration in the current legislative session). A print version of the weekly blog will appear in the Portsmouth Wire newspaper; according to the site, weekly podcasts are coming soon. Front Door Politics is a project of independent producer Hilary Niles of Barrington.